DNV GL – KEMA Laboratories
OECD statistics suggest MENA aggregate energy demand is expected to continue to expand well above the world average, at around 3 percent per year between 2010 and 2030, with electricity demand growing at a rate of 6 percent a year over the same period. As per Mohammed Atif, Area Manager, Energy Advisory Middle East, DNV GL – Energy, the region is expected to continue to grow further, albeit with an emphasis on sustainability and renewable energy to enable wide scale deployment. Along with this, further pricing reforms, lower subsidies and more involvement from the private sector are also anticipated. “Generators will be greatly affected by the technological, economic and policy changes which are present or expected in the ME. Arguably they have the greatest to gain or lose from the transition. The changes implicit in the transition are already having significant impact on the distribution and nature of generation that is having profound consequences for the operation of the grid. Network operator/utility business models will come under pressure due to these changes,” he adds.
An EIU (Economic Intelligence Unit) report on electricity demand in the MENA region predicts an increase of 7 percent per annum over the next 10 years. “In the past few decades ME power generation growth averaged 6 – 8 percent and is continuing at rates higher than 5 percent annually (in some countries as high as 10%). This is more than twice the global growth average rate of 2.2% annually,” says Dr. Hisham Al Khatib, Honorary Vice Chairman, World Energy Council.