We are proud to be a sponsor of the 2016 Wind Resource Assessment Forum.
Experts from DNV GL will showcase their expertise during this forum.
Presenters: Marie-Anne Cowan, Senior Engineer, DNV GL – Energy and Knut Bech, Lead Engineer Wind Competence Center, Statoil
Date/time: Wednesday 20 April, 11:15am
Session: Operational wind resource assessment and performance reanalysis
Joint presentation: Loss and uncertainty in production estimates for offshore wind projects: How do we treat asymmetric uncertainties?
Abstract: The production estimate constitutes the revenue part of the economic analysis of a prospective offshore wind farm project. A good wind resource, small wake losses and high technical availability are prominent examples of factors that will have a profound positive effect on the production estimate. In order to assess the economic risk, one needs to analyze the technical uncertainties in the production estimate.
The losses and uncertainties are best considered as a sequence of work operations. Most of these operations have been reasonable well established throughout the offshore wind business over the years. Two special topics, which do not seem to be subject to consensus, will be discussed in this paper: How wind speed uncertainty is converted to energy uncertainty, and how the technical availability uncertainty should be treated as an asymmetric uncertainty. Furthermore, we will provide a table for integrated loss and uncertainty analysis, suited for Monte Carlo simulation.
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