Our forecast includes three factors - growth, footprint of said growth, and inclusiveness.
SDG8 does not have a goal of high economic output, only on the growth rates. In our model, growth rates for the two regions that already have high output per person are expected to be very low, while China and the developing countries that have lower initial output per person, are expected to have much higher growth. The developing countries succeed better than the developed world on decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation, where significant improvements are expected. The employment figures are unreliable for large parts of the world and thus challenging to forecast, but the Palma ratio indicates large challenges with distribution all over the world.
ROW, BRISE, and China succeed with high growth and improved sustainability of this growth, but fail on distribution, and so get a yellow rating. USA and OECD fail both on growth and distribution of growth, but partly succeed on sustainability of growth. They get a red rating.
Understanding the score
Five regions: USA, OECD (excl. USA), China, BRISE (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and 10 other emerging economies), ROW (rest of the world).
Green light: Goal likely to be reached.
Orange light: Goal not likely to be reached, but more than 50% of the gap between today's status and the goal is likely to be closed.
Red light: Goal not likely to be reached, and less than 50% of the gap between today's status and the goal is likely to be closed.